It is 10am on Monday, April 30th, 2019. George Ray has just been found outside Rail House still clutching the League Two trophy. Dave Artell is due at an event to award him freedom of the borough. There is a police car sat outside the club’s Carlsberg lounge, which has been sealed off since revellers were finally dispersed at 4:30am the previous night.
A few metres away, Gresty the Lion is being interviewed by Sky Sports News.
Less than 24 hours earlier, Crewe had defeated Forest Green Rovers to confirm their League One status next season, finishing as champions on 97 points.
There is no harm in dreaming, right?
With pre-season friendlies complete, season tickets renewed and optimism high, many supporters are envisaging such a scenario, and why not?
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Artell has said this is his strongest squad yet; he has signed every player he has pursued, from Paul Green to the young contract rebels, Jones, Ainley and Kirk. The foundations are there to make this a hugely successful season for The Alex – and they may never have a better shot at promotion.
Another fans forum, another hugely successful open day, and the creation of a new supporters group have all contributed to a real feel good atmosphere that has enveloped the club and its fans. Added to Crewe’s sensational end of season run, in which they won five of their last eight, and it has become the most eagerly anticipated campaign in recent memory. Even allowing George Ray to take control of the club’s Twitter account for the friendly against Altrincham has proved to be a masterstroke.
Those promising end of season results were soon followed by contract extensions for some of the clubs hottest prospects. The acquisitions of Paul Green, Shaun Miller and Alex Nicholls mean the club now boast an embarrassment of riches in midfield and attack, and can arguably field two completely different front sixes without significantly diluting the quality of the side.
Even the bookies rate Crewe as having an outside chance of promotion, with most offering odds of around 8/1 on The Railwaymen returning to League One.
But – and there is always a but with Crewe – the defence still gives cause for concern. With left back Zoumana Bakoyogo released and right back Paul Sterry re-joining parent club Newcastle, the club do look still light on cover at full back, even with the signing of Nicky Hunt.
Harry Pickering has already shown he may be better utilised in advanced areas, finishing last season with several goals. His intelligence and ability to receive the ball under pressure is something Crewe have often lacked in forward areas. Perry Ng, who spent most of last season at right back, has made no secret of his preferred role at centre half. Despite this, it appears Artell will be using both men primarily as full backs this season.
There is also hope that first year professionals Rio Adebisi and Travis Johnson may be good enough to deputise in these roles at some stage, although this campaign may come too soon for them to make a regular impact. Hopes are also high for Luke Offord, who can operate on either side.
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The clubs leaky defence has been an issue for some time. Last season, only two teams conceded more than Crewe, despite them keeping eleven clean sheets. One goal seems to open the floodgates. And the last five seasons are not much better: Crewe have conceded an average of 76 goals at 1.6 per game.
Of the 20 teams to have been promoted from League Two since 2013, only three of those did so after conceding more than 50 goals, and not one conceded more than 60.
This is a statistic that correlates closely with Crewe’s previous promotions. They have been promoted on each of the last three occasions they have conceded less than 60 goals in a campaign.
In 2012/13, they conceded 59, in 2002/3, it was 40, and in 1996/7, it was 47. Across the last 30 years, Crewe have conceded less than 60 goals in a season just eight times, and been promoted in five of those. In two of the three years that those figures were not enough to gain promotion, they still qualified for the play-offs.
Never has the old phrase, ‘strikers win matches, defenders win championships’ rang more true.
Logic would quickly conclude that if Artell can somehow ensure Crewe *only* concede around 1.2 goals a game (or 56 goals overall), then promotion is theirs for the taking. The club have not often had much trouble finding the opposition net; it is keeping goals out of their own that has proved to be the problem. A stronger midfield bolstered by the signing of Green, with Jones and Wintle now both fully fit after injuries last term, should ensure the defence comes under less pressure this time out.
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There are many reasons to believe this team can do something special over the next nine months. Artell has now had two pre-seasons with the squad and should know his strongest XI. Amongst the home grown talents of Ainley, Jones, Pickering, Ng and captain George Ray, there is a core of youth now experienced enough at this level to be regularly influencing games.
However, doubts still remain. Can Crewe shake off the habit that has seen them concede a plethora of late goals? Will they be able to consistently see games out when ahead? We will find out soon enough.
One thing is for sure though, until Crewe learn to defend, they will find League Two a big mountain to climb.
You can find all Crewe’s fixtures for 2018/19 here
You will also be able to find 2018/19 key stats here
And match reports for 2018/19 here
Predictions:
Top Scorer – Shaun Miller
Player of Season – Harry Pickering
Breakthrough Player – Luke Offord
Finish: 11th
Crewe Alexandra 